Let me start with the hottest topic today.
When the US Navy was carrying out a blockade in the Gulf of Oman, it encountered a large container ship flying the Iranian flag attempting to break through. The giant ship is named TOUSKA. I checked its route and it departed from Gaolan Port in Zhuhai, Guangdong on March 29, passed through Port Klang in Malaysia on April 3, and arrived in the Gulf of Oman today, attempting to enter the Strait of Hormuz and enter the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas.
The ship was carrying 80,000 tons of cargo, all of which were imported from China, including industrial products, daily necessities, building materials, and electronic goods. If transported back to Iran, it could supply a city for a long time.
The U.S. military released video footage showing them following the USS Tuska for six hours, repeatedly trying to persuade it to turn back and leave its course. However, the Tuska did not respond or turn around, attempting to enter the Strait of Hormuz at full speed of 17 knots.
The U.S. military decided to intercept by force, first informing the other side via radio that they would attack the engine room and ordering the crew to evacuate immediately. They then destroyed the propulsion system with two 127mm guns, bringing the cargo ship to a stop. U.S. troops boarded and seized the Tusca.
The Iranian crew's disregard for warnings and reckless attempt to break through customs likely stemmed from a strict order from above, compelling them to return home. This ship belongs to the Iranian National Shipping Company, a state-owned enterprise; without such a direct order, a mere captain wouldn't risk hundreds of millions of dollars worth of cargo.
Iran's domestic economy was already on the verge of collapse before the war, and after being blockaded and bombed for more than a month, it urgently needed imported supplies. Enraged by the US interception, Iran condemned the US military's actions as thuggish, expanded the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and even attempted a drone strike, but failed to hit the US warship.
The second round of negotiations, which was originally scheduled to begin today (20th), has been disrupted. The US delegation has arrived in Islamabad, but Iran has refused to continue the talks, insisting that the US lift the naval blockade first.
It's truly insidious that Trump was advised to blockade the straits. This move not only cuts off Iran's oil revenue but also its supply lines, instantly exacerbating the pain of war—far more effective than aerial bombing. An Iranian blockade of the Straits would hurt global oil prices, while a US blockade of Iranian shipping could potentially cause economic collapse within Iran.
The latest Brent crude oil price has returned to around 95. The market is generally optimistic, believing that the US and Iran are making tough statements and exerting pressure in order to gain the upper hand in subsequent negotiations, and that the probability of a renewed war is low (<30%).
Today, A-shares continued their overall rebound, with a turnover of 2.57 trillion yuan and a median market increase of 0.45%. Seven of the eight major broad-based indices rose, which is a positive sign. Among the better-performing sectors, the ChiNext index has reached a new high for the year, while the CSI 300, CSI 500/1000/2000 indices have basically returned to their pre-pandemic levels.
In fact, it's not just the A-shares market; the South Korean and Japanese stock markets, which are more significantly affected by oil prices, have also basically filled the gap left by the war. The ups and downs of the past two months have been a test for those holding positions. Some people were scared off at the low point and jumped ship, while others took the opportunity to buy in. Stock trading itself is a game of strategy that tests one's mentality.
Of course, some sectors were not affected by the war and continued to move forward along their own general trend. Among them, optical modules soared, rising 24% in April alone and accumulating a 40% increase year-to-date. Among them, liquor stocks fell, hitting new lows every day and accumulating a 12.8% decline year-to-date.
I now think that studying the rise and fall of specific companies or industries is a thankless task. You may do a lot of research and calculate for a long time, but the final conclusion may still be wrong. If the market could be calculated simply by calculation, then those who sell shovels would just go into the mining industry.
Rolling in stock index futures is still the easiest and most convenient option, but the entry barrier keeps getting higher and higher as the index rises. Right now, even rolling one lot requires 500,000 yuan, which isn't very safe. There have been suggestions before about mini stock index futures, lowering the entry barrier to 1/10 of the current level, so that retail investors can also enjoy the product's benefits.
However, this would create other problems. First, if more people were to use stock index futures, the market would become too sluggish, and excess returns would decrease. Second, if the entry barrier is too low, some gamblers with little money would rush in to speculate, potentially losing everything and causing a public outcry due to negative public opinion.
After much thought, perhaps the current situation is the most reasonable one.
1. The recent continuous decline in Wingtech convertible bonds has attracted attention, and I've seen many people discussing it on Jisilu (a Chinese investment platform). Its conversion value is approximately 96, currently trading at a premium of 2.88%. If held until the end of July 2027, the full price including principal and interest will be 109 (after tax), equivalent to a 10% return over 15 months. This is considered a very high return in China's current sluggish financial market.
However, high returns are never without risk. You should remember the situation with Wingtech Technology. Its acquisition of Nexperia in the Netherlands was frozen, and it has lost both management and control. Financially, it cannot be consolidated. Last year, it was expected to lose nearly 10 billion yuan. On April 30, it is very likely that a non-standard annual report will be issued. At that time, Wingtech Technology's stock will be designated as ST, its bonds will be suspended from trading, and its rating will be downgraded. This bond is worth 8 billion yuan and has a large number of institutional holdings. It will be forced to sell.
In fact, I think this recent drop was caused by institutional investors rushing to sell and dumping shares. If you want to earn that 10%, you have to bear the uncertainty surrounding Nexperia, and the risk-reward ratio isn't as high as you might imagine. If, and I mean if, the price drops below 90 in the next 10 days, offering an annualized return of around 25%, then it's okay to try your luck by controlling the amount invested. If they dare to default, there will definitely be a lot of retail investors crying and complaining. Just hitch a ride on their coattails.
2. On the 20th of this month, the LPR remained unchanged. Currently, housing prices in first-tier cities show signs of stabilizing, and the government is not in a hurry to cut interest rates to stimulate the market. The current rent-to-price ratio is certainly lower than mortgage interest rates, but higher than the returns on bank deposits. Therefore, it's a loss for those who buy a house with a loan, but attractive to those who find bank interest rates too low.
3. Regarding the CATL shareholder inquiry and transfer mentioned yesterday, the final transfer price has been set at 410. With 50 institutions participating in the inquiry, the subscription rate exceeded 2.1 times, thus driving up the transfer price. At 410, the price represents a 5% discount, with a six-month lock-up period. This isn't considered negative news; it indicates a positive outlook on CATL.
That's about it. Here are some feedback from readers who took their parents on trips:
" The idea of traveling with my parents had been brewing for a long time, and thanks to the Cat Travel Fund, it finally came true. This time, we visited Chairman Mao's former residence in Shaoshan, paid our respects to the bronze statue of Chairman Mao, and visited the Drip Cave (where he once lived and worked). We also went to the Chairman Mao Youth Statue Square at Orange Isle in Changsha, took a night cruise on the Xiangjiang River (their first time on a boat), strolled around Wenheyou, sampled local delicacies, and visited some scenic spots. It was obvious that my parents had aged, so the pace of the trip was slow, with frequent breaks and midday rests to replenish their energy. But what I could feel most was their joy and excitement. They even said that probably few people in their village had ever visited these places. Chairman Mao was a major part of their youth, and being able to walk and see the places where Chairman Mao lived in their later years, walking the same paths, filled them with overwhelming excitement. Seeing their happiness, I felt a little guilty for bringing them so late. I should take them out more often in the future, while they are still able to walk, and give them more wonderful experiences. "
"Thanks to Cat Brother for initiating this event, it was truly meaningful. I never expected to be so lucky. My parents, due to special circumstances at home, couldn't travel far. I took my wife and her parents to Huizhou, Guangdong for a trip. It was my mother-in-law's first time on an airplane, and it was also my wife's first time taking her family on a trip. I truly felt like I was part of her family. 25,000 steps a day—retired senior special forces soldiers are really something! Our whole family definitely needs to lose weight." 
I'll try to take my parents on a trip once a year from now on. Finally, I hope the A-shares market will rise strong!!!
I like the reader's feedback above. Fathers-in-law and mothers-in-law are also parents. If it's inconvenient for your own parents to go out, it's also a good idea to take your mother-in-law and father-in-law out for a trip.
Original Article: View Chinese Version
