I watched the 315 Gala for a while tonight, which delayed my writing time, so I stopped watching afterwards. Thinking about it, with consumption currently sluggish and the government making every effort to stimulate and boost it, it's unlikely that they will severely punish core industries or big brands. They will probably just target some small and micro workshops as a warning to others.
Let me briefly summarize the important events that happened over the weekend.
1. The biggest development in the Iranian situation is the US and Israel bombing Kharg Island. I analyzed this in detail last night; those interested can check the historical records. Simply put, this island is the gateway for 90% of Iran's oil exports. Destroying or occupying the island could cause a 40-50% drop in Iranian government revenue in the short term, thereby significantly reducing its war-fighting capabilities.
However, if the US and Israel do this, it will lead to a fierce retaliation from Iran that crosses the line. For example, oil fields, freshwater plants, power plants, and other civilian facilities in the Gulf region will be destroyed. The US and Israel's air defenses will not be able to prevent this.
Although Israel and the United States are allies, they are willing to bear different costs in this war. Israel and Iran have been mortal enemies for nearly 50 years, locked in a life-or-death struggle. The United States is here to stand up for its ally and is unwilling to get too deeply involved, taking a wait-and-see approach.
If the US and Israel do indeed take action against the oil facilities on Harker Island, oil prices could jump further, with institutions believing that in extreme cases, they could rise above $150. Global stock markets would then suffer, representing the biggest uncertainty and risk in the near term. Hopefully, Trump will think clearly and not be led astray by Netanyahu.
2. Rising oil prices have led to global price increases, and inflation expectations in the United States are also rising. Previously, the market expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates 1-2 times this year, but the latest data shows that institutions are more inclined to bet on zero rate cuts in 2026.
Other countries have also adjusted their oil policies. For example, Brazil exempted imports from tariffs but increased taxes on exports. Several other countries have done the same, all trying to protect their own interests amidst this volatility. Saudi Arabia, in particular, is acting quite cunningly, planning to reduce its daily oil production from 10 million barrels to 8 million barrels – a clear case of profiting from the war.
3. Moutai has introduced a new distribution policy. This new policy does not include the most familiar 53-degree Feitian Moutai, but mainly targets non-standard Moutai products (premium, zodiac, 15-year, kilogram-sized, etc.). Previously, distributors paid the Moutai distillery for the liquor and then tried to resell it themselves. Now, distributors will simply act as agents for sales, earning a uniform 5% commission. The advantage is that distributors will not face financial pressure if they cannot sell the liquor; the disadvantage is a decrease in profit margins.
This time, Moutai hasn't touched its core distributor base for the 53-degree Feitian liquor, meaning it hasn't completely eliminated them. However, after several years of operations, a clear trend is emerging: Moutai is gradually moving away from distributors and directly targeting end-consumer consumers, with direct sales increasing year by year. While distributors contributed to Moutai's expansion during a specific historical period, they have essentially been a rent-seeking group profiting passively for the past decade or so. It's highly likely that this group will be separated from Moutai in the future, as the increasingly sluggish liquor market can no longer sustain them.
4. There's been a hot topic in society these past few days: Pang Donglai distributed its 3.8 billion yuan in company assets to all employees. The 12 store managers each received 20 million yuan, the average employee received 200,000 yuan, and the boss, Yu Donglai, received 5%, which is about 200 million yuan. This has caused a sensation on the internet, but first, we need to correct one detail: it's not about directly giving employees money, but rather giving them "profit-sharing rights."
There's a backstory to this. There was an abandoned project in Zhengzhou that Pang Donglai took over. It would require an investment of about 4 billion yuan, which was exactly the size of Pang Donglai's cash reserves. So the cash was used to build that abandoned project. After completion, the profits from the project would be distributed to all employees every year according to the ratio mentioned above. I'm sure you understand what I mean.
Some conspiracy theories suggest that Pang Donglai's money might be being targeted, and to avoid being set up, the boss readily distributed profit-sharing rights to all employees. This way, no one would dare to interfere later, as the social consequences of robbing tens of thousands of employees would be extremely serious. I have limited information and cannot verify whether this claim is reliable. I'll leave this as a starting point and let time reveal the answer.
Regardless, Yu Donglai is an extremely generous and open-minded person. Because Pang Donglai has never raised funds in the past, he personally holds nearly 100% of the company's shares. Whatever the reason, the fact that he could do this is extraordinary.
5. As I was writing this, I heard the news that a subsidiary of the listed company Dofluoride was involved in the bleached chicken feet exposed on the 315 Gala. I haven't seen the details, so you can ask AI to fill in the gaps.
6. The 315 Gala also highlighted and exposed the black and gray industries related to GEO (Generative Engine Optimization). I've explained what GEO is before; simply put, it's feeding AI garbage and then having it vomit it back to users. When Musk exposed Twitter's algorithm, A-Gu's GEO section hyped up the concept. Many teams in China are already in this industry, producing misleading marketing content to feed into AI's corpus, especially some official media outlets and state media.
Now that the show has been exposed, there will definitely be a crackdown in the short term; just bear with it. I think if AI can't even distinguish GEO content, then it can't be considered true AI; it means it's still a code idiot easily fooled by humans.
That's all for tonight. One last thing: An is leading a group buy for riding chairs from a Norwegian brand. The chairs are stylish and comfortable; I'm currently using one myself, and it's the same chair I use for my annual T-shirt photoshoots. Joining the group buy now means you can get 30% off the official price —a really good deal! You should consider it.
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Original Article: View Chinese Version
