Let me first update some recent hot news . A primary school in Minab, Iran, was bombed, killing nearly 170 people, mostly children. The New York Daily News recently published an in-depth report, tracking down the details, and now the truth is basically clear.
It has been confirmed that the missile was a Tomahawk missile fired by the US military. Locals in Iran filmed the missile hitting its target, and experts analyzed it frame by frame to confirm it was a Tomahawk. When questioned by the media, the US government refused to admit it, only stating that the military would investigate.
Secondly, regarding the cause of the bombing, the most likely explanation is that it was a mistake. This primary school was originally built on military land belonging to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps base, serving as a school for military families (with another 40-50% of students coming from nearby civilians). In 2013, it was separated by a wall, but they are not far apart, about 150 meters in a straight line. From satellite imagery, the school and military buildings appear quite similar. It is highly probable that the US military made an intelligence error, bombing the primary school along with the base on March 4th.
The two satellite images below are from 2018 and 2026, respectively, after the bombing on March 4. Zooming in reveals that the military base and primary school were destroyed.
Some netizens were previously confused as to why there were so many people at the primary school on a Saturday. In Iran, Fridays are a day off, so Saturday is equivalent to Monday here, and the schools are packed with people. The death toll is also accurate, as aerial photos show construction vehicles digging over 100 graves for children and teachers.
This was a complete humanitarian disaster, which cannot be explained by collateral damage of war. It sparked a strong backlash in the United States , with anti-war organizations taking to the streets in protest. The U.S. military is currently reluctant to admit it, but according to Reuters , several anonymous U.S. military officials have acknowledged that an initial internal review suggests the strike was indeed carried out by the U.S. military .
Based on historical precedent for such incidents , it is highly likely that the subsequent explanation will be that it was a "technical mistake" and attributed to outdated intelligence, but it will never be admitted that it was a "deliberate attack against civilians," and the relevant commanders will be internally disciplined (usually demoted or transferred).
That's all I know for now.
Today's A-share market was relatively calm, with a turnover of 2.5 trillion yuan, neither too high nor too low, and a median decline of 0.42% within the normal range. The lobster AI sector, which was active yesterday, saw a decline in sentiment. The most obvious signal was Tencent's 4.5% opening higher this morning, only to be followed by a long bearish candlestick, closing down 0.3%. Anyone who rushed in this morning on impulse was immediately caught off guard by the drop. Even if the lobster AI concept has potential, it's a long-term narrative; the short-term fluctuations yesterday, today, and tomorrow still hinge on sentiment-driven speculation.
In the past few days, many people have been anxiously rushing to install the Lobster AI, and many local governments have also seized the opportunity to introduce incentive measures to encourage the development of the Lobster industry. However, on the other hand, many departments are starting to cool things down, with those in the financial and government sectors warning against connecting to the Lobster AI. After all, it's just an early-generation product, and its security is very immature. If you act rashly, you could get yourself into serious trouble.
I read an article by Jensen Huang today that inspired me. He said that AI has five layers: the first layer is energy (electricity), the second layer is chips, the third layer is infrastructure (power grid, cooling system, network connection), the fourth layer is AI models, and the fifth layer is applications (robotics, autonomous driving).
In the future, as human society undergoes a comprehensive transformation towards AI, there will be enormous construction needs in these five areas. While AI will replace many existing human jobs, humans will also create a large number of entirely new jobs in order to build and maintain AI.
When we invest, we need to consider whether the companies we buy can stand firm in such a completely new future society. Many businesses will be created and make a lot of money, while many traditional businesses will gradually disappear.
Retail investors may be confused, as their judgment is limited, and what if they make the wrong purchase? The answer is to buy index ETFs. The index compilation rules are to retain the strong and eliminate the weak. You don't need to choose; the market will provide the answer.
Many readers commented that since the first layer is energy, then buy power companies. It's not that simple. Most of the power stocks you can buy in the A-share market are thermal power companies. Even if AI needs a lot of electricity, humanity cannot accept constantly mining and burning coal; it's unsustainable. Tech elites are thinking about new energy solutions.
As for hydropower (difficult to increase significantly), photovoltaics (no power generation at night), wind power (unstable), and nuclear power (unsafe), each has its own inherent flaws. Therefore, even though AI is very popular, the power sector has not risen much, and the logic is not sound.
Currently, the two most certain factors are computing power and power grid.
A significant development in the Iranian situation over the past 24 hours was the Iranian navy's attempt to deploy mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Several mine-laying boats were dispatched, but 16 were destroyed by the US military.
Once deployed, naval mines are difficult to clear, and the deploying party is more efficient than the mine-clearing party. Therefore, if Iran continues in this manner, it will be difficult for merchant ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran knows that its navy and air force are no match for the United States and Israel, and that missile launches can cause limited damage. Its biggest card now is to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, force up global oil prices, and make the global economy suffer.
Even those of us watching from thousands of miles away are paying the price of war to some extent. The rising cost of fuel, logistics, and chemicals has all been factored into the prices of everyday consumer goods.
Trump threatened a 20-fold crackdown, but the reality is that approximately 750 cargo ships are currently stuck in the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to surge and fertilizer prices to begin to have a ripple effect. The IEA (International Energy Agency) is discussing releasing 300-400 million barrels of reserves, which has temporarily stabilized oil prices around $90, preventing them from spiraling out of control further.
Today, the sector with the largest gain in A-shares was chemical raw materials, up 3%. Other sectors such as oil, natural gas, and coal also rebounded, but not as much as before. After the turbulent events of the past few days, the market is no longer easily alarmed.
1. All member countries of the International Energy Agency unanimously agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil reserves.
2. With the Two Sessions concluded, the latest result regarding the much-anticipated basic old-age pension for residents is a 20 yuan increase next year. A few days ago, many people used me as a target for criticism, but after the actual result was released, they all fell silent. This shows that the prerequisite for moral judgment is bullying the weak and fearing the strong. 
I don't need to flaunt my moral standards, nor am I willing to say anything absurd just to please some people. I'll just state the objective facts, and if anyone can't accept them, they can change those facts through their actions.
That's all for tonight, launch.
Original Article: View Chinese Version
