Last night's article was moved to "visible only to the operator" this morning. It wasn't deleted, but the effect is the same—only I can see it. Those who are late asking why I didn't post it, please don't ask me that question anymore, I've been posting daily for thirteen years!
Last night, someone in the comments section asked me how to achieve financial freedom. I just casually joked about it, since such a fundamental question can't possibly be answered in a couple hundred words in the comments. But later, reflecting on my own experiences and those of people around me, I came up with a conclusion: try your best to find and cultivate your talents and do what you're good at.
Once you've achieved some success and made some progress, you can consider using leverage to amplify and accelerate your gains. This should give you a chance to get rid of financial pressure within 5-10 years.
Everyone has different talents. Some people have strong communication skills and are particularly good at sales; some people have a strong desire to express themselves and are good at content creation; some people are good at singing and dancing, and some people are good at sports and games. You need to find your own shining point first. If you are really so mediocre that you have no special talents, then accept your fate and there's nothing wrong with being an ordinary person.
Today is the first day of trading after the A-share market resumed, with a turnover of 2.2 trillion yuan, a slight recovery compared to before the holiday. Seven out of eight broad-based indices rose, and the market median was up 1.24%, which is similar to the performance of global capital markets during the long holiday, making it a very solid start.
The best-performing sector was oil and gas exploration, up 10.7%, directly related to the tense situation in the Middle East. With US-Iran negotiations unresolved, the probability of the US resorting to force to push for talks is increasing as time drags on. According to the latest betting odds from blockchain casinos, the probability of the US striking Iran before March 15th is 52%, a significant increase from yesterday. Oil bulls would love for a strike tonight, as a major military action would bring immense wealth, but the complexity of the Middle East situation has even made the usually headstrong Trump hesitant to act rashly.
The US military isn't afraid of being unable to defeat Iran; the key issue is that neither they nor Israel have ground troops. It's hard to say how much pressure they can exert on the existing Iranian regime through airstrikes alone. If they attack and bomb, and the Iranian regime refuses to submit, and Iran unites internally against the external enemy, and the Islamic brothers in the Middle East share a common hatred, it will be difficult to end the conflict gracefully.
It is worth noting that most overseas institutions I have seen are not optimistic about long-term oil prices. They believe that once the situation in Iran stabilizes, weak demand will lead to a gradual decline in oil prices. Some Brent crude oil price targets are as low as $50-$60, which is 20% lower than the current price of $70+.
Second on the list is precious metals, up 7%. Silver rebounded by 10% during the long holiday. This is the result of those who held stocks over the holiday and won the bet. There's no need to be envious. If gold and silver had plummeted during the long holiday, they would have been stuck with losses today. Profits and losses come from the same source.
The film and entertainment sector suffered the most today, down 7.5%, which is not surprising. As I mentioned in my first post yesterday, this year's Spring Festival film season was a disaster, with moviegoers down 20-30%, and the film sector was bound to suffer. However, I also wanted to say that even if the Spring Festival box office had been good, today would most likely have seen a high opening followed by a decline, indicating a sell-off. See the candlestick chart below for the reasons.
As you can see, the game had already ended before the Spring Festival, and the market had already fallen back. This is the involution of the A-share market. You want to act ahead of time, and someone else wants to act even earlier, so someone else will act even earlier. This round of game in the film and television sector started at the end of January, peaked on February 10, and people started selling off on February 11. At that time, there were still 4 days before the Spring Festival holiday. I'm sure most people didn't know the quality of the Spring Festival movies at that time; it was just blind speculation, a game of musical chairs.
The hype surrounding the summer and National Day film seasons will definitely change, but the core strategy remains the same: those who enter early reap the rewards while those who leave late.
1. The Panamanian government has forcibly taken over the port owned by CK Hutchison Holdings and no longer allows CK Hutchison personnel to enter. CK Hutchison has naturally lodged a strong protest and stated that it will resort to legal action. The Hong Kong government strongly condemned Panama for its breach of faith, and the Chinese government also emphasized that it will safeguard the legitimate interests of Chinese enterprises.
CK Hutchison has initiated arbitration proceedings with the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC). A victory would allow them to claim substantial damages and freeze Panama's overseas assets. However, given the deep involvement of the United States , winning this case will not be easy. What subsequent actions the Hong Kong and Chinese governments will take remains unclear; we shall wait and see.
2. China Duty Free Group (CDFG) experienced a limit-down today, primarily due to market rumors regarding the bidding results for duty-free operating rights at Beijing and Shanghai's two major international airports. CDFG lost part of the operating rights for Shanghai Airport, raising concerns in the capital market that its dominant bargaining power is being weakened. CDFG is also listed in Hong Kong, and its shares have fallen sharply over the past three trading days, from 107 to 82. A single limit-down in its A-shares may not be enough. This news broke in the last two days; those holding shares over the holiday should not sell. CDFG was gradually recovering its valuation, but this blow has pushed it down again.
3. The Ministry of Commerce has added 20 Japanese entities, including Mitsubishi Shipbuilding Corporation, to its export control list. The control list (20 companies) completely prohibits dual-use exports, including re-exports. These are primarily Japanese defense companies. There is also a watch list (20 companies), including well-known names like Subaru, Innolux, TDK, and Hino Motors, which require strict review before exporting.
The background to this round of restrictions is Sanae Takaichi's previous remarks about Taiwan, her refusal to apologize in the face of Chinese protests, and her recent election victory. This has led to a rapid deterioration in Sino-Japanese relations, which are unlikely to improve for at least three to five years. Our political relations with the United States and Japan are currently at a historic low, yet these two countries are the first and third largest trading partners with China, respectively—a rather delicate situation.
4. The LPR remained unchanged in February, having not been adjusted for a long time. There is a chance for it to be lowered by 10-15 basis points later this year.
5. The United States announced that key herbicides such as elemental phosphorus and glyphosate have been included in the list of critical strategic materials, which has caused international phosphate fertilizer prices to soar to over $700. Today, the agrochemical products sector rose by 5%.
6. UBS believes that gold prices will reach $6,200 in the coming months, which is a very optimistic forecast.
That's about it. Ready to launch!
Original Article: View Chinese Version
