Tomorrow is the eighth day of the Lunar New Year, and it's time to go back to work. Many people have been leaving their hometowns and returning to the cities where they work these past few days. Yesterday, a reader left a message saying that they felt very sad, experiencing both homesickness and post-holiday blues. I've felt this way before, especially when I'm alone on a train, I feel like crying.
Later, I found a wife, and every time we came back and left together, the pain lessened considerably. Then we had a child, and my parents came to live with us in Beijing, which further reduced the pain. Later still, my income increased, and I had more free time, so I stopped feeling it.
To put it bluntly, there's only one reason I absolutely have to go back to Beijing: my eldest child is about to start school. Otherwise, I could stay here indefinitely.
So my experience can serve as a reference for you all: find a partner, bring your parents over, and increase your income. That's it.
In yesterday's underlined comments, many readers questioned the origin of gold on Earth. Actually, not only gold is from external sources, but all elements heavier than iron, such as copper, lead, tin, nickel, tungsten, and other metals, are also from external sources because the conditions of the solar system itself cannot create elements heavier than iron. The reason why the total amount of gold is less is because gold has a higher atomic sequence, making its synthesis (through binary neutron star collisions) more difficult.
These are scientific consensuses, and your spirit of inquiry is commendable, but you need to learn more before you can disprove them. You can't assume something is false just because you think it's wrong; that would be laughable.
Some major events happened during the Spring Festival holiday, which I have written about in installments over the past few days. Now I will summarize them for you.
1. First, the Spring Festival film market has delivered its results. Overall, the data was below expectations, down one-third from last year and one-fifth from the year before. The average ticket price remained largely unchanged, but the main issue was a significant decrease in viewership. This is likely due to the overall poor quality of this year's films, with no films scoring above 8 points. "Pegasus 3" was the biggest winner, capturing half of the box office. "The Legend of the Swordsman" has rebounded in recent days due to improved word-of-mouth. "Silent Awakening," despite initially having a high number of screenings, has seen its attendance and screenings decline due to its lowest rating and deteriorating audience reception.
If this is applied to the A-share market, there are no winners. Even the best-performing stock, "Pegasus 3," saw its related companies' stock prices driven too high before the holiday, and the outlook after the holiday is not optimistic. This round is over; we'll have to wait until the summer vacation to start again.
2. Guotou Silver announced a settlement plan before the Spring Festival. Simply put, the original market decline (-17%) will be ignored, and the portion of the valuation that was adjusted downward (31%-17%=14%) will be fully compensated for if the amount is less than 1,000 yuan, and compensated proportionally for amounts more than 1,000 yuan.
Everyone was guessing how much Guotou Capital would lose in this round of compensation, but Guotou Capital (a listed company, 600061) said that the impact of this compensation is less than 5% of the net profit in 2024. The net profit in 2024 is 2.694 billion yuan, so that would be less than 135 million yuan. Fortunately, the loss is not much.
3. Humanoid robots stole the show at the Spring Festival Gala, and Hong Kong stocks surged on the humanoid robot concept a few days ago. It's estimated that A-shares will also see a surge in sentiment after the holiday, possibly lasting 1-3 trading days, but don't have too high expectations. Humanoid robots aren't a new concept; they've been hyped for years, and their valuations are already quite high. More importantly, there's currently no clear commercial demand for humanoid robots; neither To C nor To B is viable. At present, they are primarily high-priced toys driven by curiosity. I discussed this in depth in my article on February 17th; those interested can click to view it.
4. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that the tariffs imposed under Trump's previous "emergency declaration" were illegal and immediately terminated. However, Trump immediately invoked another statute to impose an additional 15% tariff to cover this, so tariffs on exports to the U.S. were not reduced.
In layman's terms, Trump has multiple tax increases options, A, B, and C. Option A was initially more flexible, allowing him to raise taxes whenever he wanted. However, Option A was rejected by the courts, so he can now only implement Option B, which is more procedurally complicated.
Some analysts believe this will benefit export trade, but I personally think the impact will be insignificant.
5. The National Bureau of Statistics released the January data for secondhand housing prices in 70 cities, which I analyzed in detail in my article on February 13th. In short, the rate of decline has slowed, and some cities have seen a halt in price drops. However, this isn't entirely convincing; we need to observe the data from March and April after the spring season. I believe that current housing prices in first-tier cities offer some value for money. I'm considering investing in a Beijing apartment with a total price of around 5 million yuan for first-time homebuyers in the second half of 2026, and we'll see how things develop then.
6. The United States is amassing naval and air power against Iran, primarily two carrier strike groups, along with additional air force. This is mainly due to stalled US-Iran negotiations, with Iran unwilling to compromise on several key issues. Trump believes that "limited strikes" are necessary to advance negotiations. Because of this, international oil prices have risen by about 5% since before the holiday, reaching a near six-month high.
However, I don't think the betting probability of the on-chain casino is very high. 57% of people acted before March 31, and only 18% acted before February 28. Anyone with inside information would have already bought up the price.
7. Precious metal prices have rebounded. Gold is currently at $5150, up 2% during the Spring Festival, and silver is currently at $86, up 10% during the Spring Festival. The market is back to normal. I haven't sold a single share of my gold holdings during this round of fluctuations. I believe that gold can remain stable above $5000 by 2026. If there are further fluctuations and gold falls below $4300, I will consider adding to my position; I will definitely buy below $4000.
8. Tesla has begun mass production of the CyberCab, a self-driving car with only passenger seats and no steering wheel, meaning humans cannot control it and can only communicate with its AI. Tesla's short-term goal is to achieve an annual production of 2 million vehicles, but it's currently far from that goal, producing only a few hundred per week. It's estimated that actual production capacity will be between 100,000 and 200,000 by 2026, still in the ramp-up phase. Once this model truly reaches an annual production of 2 million vehicles, I believe it will have a huge impact on the structure of human society; widespread unemployment among taxi drivers is just the smallest change we can currently imagine.
That's about it. The capital market saw a moderate rise overall during this long holiday, so there's a high probability that A-shares will continue to rise along the previous trend after the holiday. I don't think there's anything to worry about. See you when the market opens tomorrow.
I'm going out to grab some late-night snacks with my buddies. Leave a comment first, and I'll check them with my phone's assistant when I have time.
Original Article: View Chinese Version
