Last night, many readers were quite interested in my plans to invest in real estate in the second half of the year. Actually, I'm not confident that the housing market will reverse this year; I just feel that after four years of decline, a safety margin has emerged. Looking at Japan's experience, as long as first-tier city properties weather the deflationary cycle, they eventually recover. Therefore, I think Beijing real estate already possesses certain investment value, and it's worth allocating a small portion of your portfolio to it. Since I'm not entirely confident, I've only considered buying one property around 5 million yuan.
There's a saying on the internet: discussing toxicity without considering dosage is irresponsible. 5 million isn't a large percentage of my family's assets; even if it drops another 20% and I lose 1 million, I can afford it. If you have similar thoughts, you should consider risk symmetry.
Many readers have asked why my target price is 5 million yuan. This is because the golden range for Beijing's housing market is 4-6 million yuan, which covers the vast majority of first-time homebuyers and those upgrading from smaller to larger homes. This range accounts for over 40% of the entire secondary housing market, offering the best liquidity. Since I don't plan to live in the property myself, but rather invest purely, liquidity is my primary consideration.
With 5 million, you can buy a house that cost 7-8 million a few years ago. You'll likely choose one near the Fifth Ring Road, within 15 years of its construction date, in a reliable property management company with an elevator, around 90 square meters, a two-bedroom apartment. This type is both rentable and sellable, offering flexibility. Alternatively, if you increase your budget a bit, you could look at a 110-square-meter three-bedroom apartment, which are among the most popular apartment types on the market.
As for your question about whether I have a preferred neighborhood, I'm not going to tell you. If I do, some of you will rush to buy it. I'll just buy my own place and we'll talk about it after the deal is finalized.
To reiterate, this plan does not mean I am confident that the housing market will reverse; it is purely an asset allocation consideration. If I had to explain anything, it would be that I genuinely have no intention of immigrating, because those who want to leave are only selling their properties and not buying any more.
Tonight is our small family's New Year's Eve dinner. By "small family," I mean my maternal grandparents' branch, my mother's three siblings, and their children and grandchildren.
I used to introduce my maternal grandfather's history on my public WeChat account. As a teenager, he joined the Siming Mountain Guerrilla to fight against the Japanese. Later, he was incorporated into the East China Field Army and participated in the War of Liberation. After the founding of the People's Republic of China, he also fought in the Korean War. After returning, he even fought in the "last battle between the Kuomintang and the Communist Party," the Battle of Yijiangshan Island. Yijiangshan Island is located in Jiaojiang, Taizhou. So my grandfather retired from the army in Taizhou, and through an introduction, he married my wife and settled down there.
Today at the dinner table, my aunts and uncles told me more about my maternal grandfather's life. He was from Shangyu, which is now part of Ningbo. His family was once wealthy farmers because they had six children, all boys. My grandfather was the sixth child, and in the old society, it would have been impossible to raise him without considerable means.
My maternal grandfather's family was relatively well-off during his childhood. He attended a private school for three years, which made him a rare scholar at the time. The turning point came the year his eldest brother got married. A fire destroyed their home, causing them to lose all their possessions and fall into poverty. Later, my grandfather lost his father at the age of eight and his mother at the age of twelve. The whole family fell into extreme poverty, and there was even a tragedy where someone in the family starved to death.
My maternal grandfather, being the youngest in his family, had no choice but to join the "bandits" in the mountains—later the Siming Mountain guerrillas—just to get food. His superiors, seeing that he was literate and had potential, pitied him and appointed him as a military doctor to heal the wounded and sick in the rear, instead of sending him to the front lines as cannon fodder. This is crucial; otherwise, he likely wouldn't have survived from the War of Resistance against Japan to the Korean War.
There's something else I haven't told you before. My maternal grandfather's fourth and fifth brothers were extremely poor and couldn't afford to get married. Since they had no children, they gave my grandfather's second daughter (my mother) to his fifth brother for adoption. My mother went to Shangyu when she was five years old. She didn't suffer there; my fifth great-uncle treated her like a treasure, providing her with the best food and drink. My mother said she ate eggs every day during her childhood, which was considered very fortunate in the 1960s.
You might be confused by this, wondering why I'm from Taizhou. It's because my fifth maternal uncle passed away around the time my mother was in junior high school, before she was even an adult. So, my maternal grandparents took her back to Linhai to raise her. She attended Huipu High School, and later, after many twists and turns, she met my father, married him, and had me. Everything seemed to be arranged by fate.
My regret is that my maternal grandfather passed away too early, in 2004. He never talked to me about his life, probably because he thought I was too young to understand. As a result, I had to fill in the gaps in his story through my uncles and aunts' accounts.
History books only record the stories of great people. For ordinary people like my grandfather, only their children can remember their past. Once the children are gone, they leave no trace in the world.
I'm writing this tonight in the hope that you will take advantage of your elders' time to listen to their stories during the Lunar New Year gatherings while they are still alive. This way, when your children grow up, you can pass these stories on to the next generation. Even if they have never met, your stories can create a connection between them.
That's all for tonight. I'll still update every night during the Chinese New Year. I'll talk less about the capital market and mostly about going home for the holidays. If you're bored, just consider it my rambling.
Original Article: View Chinese Version
