Today's drop was exhilarating; now there's no need for any government intervention to cool things down. Every stock market investor felt like they'd been doused with ice water. Various online communities are no longer actively discussing the stock market; instead, they're back to their usual sporadic political commentary.
Gold and silver prices continued to fall after the market opened this morning, and experienced a sharp drop around 2:30 pm, with gold falling to a low of 4400 and silver to a low of 72. They then gradually rebounded, and by the time I wrote this article tonight, gold was at 4777 and silver at 83.6. Although these two prices have recovered somewhat, they are still lower than the closing prices of last Friday night's trading session.
Almost all stocks related to precious metals were severely impacted.
Silver LOF (Listed Open-Ended Fund) hit the daily limit down. Previously, the daily turnover was 2.5-3 billion, but today the turnover was only 65 million. There was also a small group of philanthropists rushing in, so it is recommended to continue to place orders for the daily limit down tonight, at 4.250.
The gold ETF hit its daily limit down around 1:40 PM, when the gold price was around 4600. Considering that gold has been rebounding since the close, if it maintains its current position (4750), it will likely rebound by 3% when it opens tomorrow. However, too many things can happen overnight, so let's see how it goes when we wake up tomorrow morning.
The precious metals sector opened down 10% today, with all stocks hitting their daily limit down, and ultimately closed down 10.8%, a truly dismal performance.
In addition, the plunge in gold and silver prices dragged down the entire commodities market.
The non-ferrous metals sector opened down 7%, fluctuated briefly in the middle, but settled down in the afternoon, closing down 8%.
The oil and gas sector fell 7.7%, the coal sector 6.1%, steel 6%, chemical raw materials 5.8%, minor metals 5.1%, and rubber 4%—truly a case of everyone sharing the same misfortune and suffering a complete defeat. The funniest thing is that lithium carbonate futures fell 14% today, even more dramatically than gold; this stock really knows how to create drama for itself.
Many investors were frustrated and uneasy after the market closed. Although they should still have some profits after New Year's Day, the three consecutive sharp drops since last Thursday have left them feeling sluggish and their previous enthusiasm has completely faded. I also suffered losses today; the CSI 500 index fell the most among the eight broad-based indices, down 3.98%, and my futures positions lost 160 yuan. (Shuai Mao sighed.) 
But investing is inherently about winning and losing. Since we've taken the plunge, we need to be able to accept the losses. Don't get carried away when you win or blame others when you lose. The good news is that gold and silver have been rebounding since 3 AM, as you can see from the screenshot I took. As long as nothing goes wrong in the latter half of the night, most things, except for a few stocks and funds, should stop falling tomorrow.
Institutions remain optimistic about the overall commodity market for the year; this current wave is simply a technical correction after excessive speculation. Today I saw someone complaining that they've experienced a once-in-50-years, even-once-in-100-years crash, all at the age of 30. I've thought about this; it's not accidental, but rather a result of how globalization of mobile internet has increased the efficiency of information and emotion transmission by several exponential levels.
If what used to be isolated casinos has now merged into a single mega-casino, where gamblers gather to revel, amplifying their greed and fear. Future fluctuations in the capital markets may become increasingly violent; just wait and see, there will be unforeseen events every now and then.
1. Today's top gainer was baijiu (Chinese liquor), up 2.6%. Haha, the broader market suffered, but the old guard (referring to a stock in the abyss) has finally rallied. It's not that baijiu has any particularly positive news; it's just a seesaw effect—funds are panicking and fleeing from smaller sectors, rushing into baijiu. The sustainability of this is questionable. Unless the overall market continues to cool down, or even falls back to its previous pace, baijiu might see a considerable rebound. Otherwise, given that housing prices and CPI haven't recovered, my view on baijiu is rather pessimistic.
2. Wingtech Technology, which announced a impairment loss of over 10 billion yuan, predictably hit its daily limit down today. However, the buying activity at the limit down price was quite active, with a total of 510,000 lots placed and 120,000 lots traded today. It should be able to open tomorrow. Because many readers asked about this in the comments, I checked the details again today. Wingtech Technology is not sitting idly by; they have filed for international arbitration and are seeking $8 billion in damages. Based on the current situation, the probability of a compensation award is not low. The Netherlands, after all, is a developed European country and wouldn't resort to outright robbery. The final outcome will likely be a negotiation to find a European buyer to take over. Even if they don't recover the $8 billion, there's a high probability they'll at least recover the principal from the original acquisition (approximately 25 billion yuan).
Another professional friend pointed out that Wingtech Technology likely purchased overseas investment insurance from China Export & Credit Insurance Corporation (SINOSURE) for this acquisition, which is guaranteed by the Chinese government. When Wingtech Technology made the acquisition, it applied for substantial loans from Chinese banks, and a prerequisite for loan approval was the purchase of SINOSURE insurance; banks wouldn't lend money without it.
The reason Wingtech Technology has never made an announcement about this is because, from a business and diplomatic perspective, this matter "cannot be discussed publicly," or "discussing it publicly would not bring any benefits." In conclusion, it's unlikely that Wingtech Technology simply lost over 10 billion yuan; they have contingency plans to handle this matter. The above information is for reference only.
Li Shen: I do not hold any shares in Wingtech Technology. I haven't bought any in the past year, and I don't plan to buy any in the next month or so.
3. Media reports indicate that many transformer factories are operating at full capacity, with some orders already booked for two to three years. Power grid equipment was one of only two sectors to rise today, besides liquor.
4. A wave of price drops hit commodity price limits, with more than ten commodities including Shanghai silver, palladium, platinum, Shanghai nickel, Shanghai tin, Shanghai copper, Shanghai aluminum, international copper, stainless steel, crude oil, fuel oil, aluminum alloys, and lithium carbonate hitting their daily price limits.
5. SpaceX plans to negotiate a merger with xAI in the coming days. Both are Musk's companies, one launches rockets and the other works on AI. The merger is essentially a matter of internal resource allocation.
6. High-level talks between Iran and the United States are expected in the coming days, which reduces the probability of a US military intervention and increases the likelihood of the US forcing Iran to back down by force. This is not good news for oil prices.
7. Alibaba's "Thousand Questions Plan" invests 3 billion yuan in a "Spring Festival Treat Plan," which is likely a response to Tencent's 1 billion yuan Spring Festival red envelope offensive. It seems Alibaba is really competitive, always vying for attention. Hang Seng Internet is a prime example of this intense competition.
That's all for tonight. I just checked and over 86,600 readers have already tipped me for the article last night. Thank you so much! That's amazing! I only know of one other public account with a higher number. You guys are really supporting me! *bows*
Original Article: View Chinese Version
